Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
US production employment, July 2026
What will BLS first report for people employed in Production occupations in July 2026, not seasonally adjusted, in millions?
current forecast · 80% CI7.6M
7.4M7.6M7.8M
history:January 2026 first print: 7.9MFebruary 2026 first print: 7.7MMarch 2026 first print: 7.7MApril 2026 first print: 7.9MMay 2026 first print: 7.9MJune 2026 first print: 7.8MJune 2025 official value: 7.9MJuly 2025 first print: 7.7M
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-07-21T01:13:09Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- July 21, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.6-sol
- ledger fact
- bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.production.july_2026.first_print
Key drivers
- Recent CPS production-employment level
- Judgmentally shrunk July NSA seasonal decline
- Household-survey sampling volatility
- Soft year-over-year production employment
Resolution
- source
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation, Table A-19
- expected
- August 6, 2026
- rule
- Resolve to the first BLS-published July 2026 value for Production occupations in CPS Employment Situation Table A-19, not seasonally adjusted, reported in thousands and multiplied by 0.001 to millions. Preserve the first print despite later revisions and round to three decimal places. Keep the registered resolutionDate of 2026-08-06, although the official BLS calendar schedules the release for 2026-08-07.
- Data point
- bls.cps.employed_people_by_occupation.production.july_2026.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.