Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
US ECI Private Compensation Q2 2026
BLS Employment Cost Index total compensation for private industry workers, seasonally adjusted 3-month percent change for the quarter ending June 2026, first print
current forecast · 80% CI+0.9%
+0.8%+0.9%+1.0%
history:2025-Q2: +1.0%2025-Q3: +0.8%2025-Q4: +0.7%2026-Q1: +0.9%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% intervalactual
thesis.analyst · 2026-07-27T18:05:01Z
resolved outcomeinside 80% interval
- actual
- +0.9%
- forecast
- +0.9% with 80% CI [+0.8%, +1.0%]
- source
- bls_eci Employment Cost Index, Table 1
First print for 2026-04 captured from https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/graph/alfredgraph.csv?id=ECICOM&vintage_date=2026-07-31 on the official release date named by the cell's resolver.
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- July 27, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- bls.eci.total_compensation_private_industry_qoq.2026_q2.first_print
Key drivers
- Recent private-industry compensation growth has clustered tightly around 0.8 to 1.0 percent q/q
- Q1 2026 private-industry benefits accelerated to 1.3 percent while wages held at 0.7 percent
- The target is the seasonally adjusted BLS Table 1 private-industry all-workers total-compensation percent change, with ECICOM used as the ledger-bound index mirror
- Labor-cost trend remains elevated but not visibly accelerating from the recent ECI reference class
Resolution
- source
- ALFRED/FRED ECICOM first-print mirror of BLS Employment Cost Index Table 1
- resolved
- July 31, 2026
- actual
- +0.9%
- rule
- Resolve to the first-print value for 2026-Q2 under the bound ALFRED/FRED ECICOM sourceBinding, which mirrors the BLS Employment Cost Index private industry total compensation seasonally adjusted quarterly index from Table 1. The forecast unit is the BLS rounded seasonally adjusted 3-month percent change for private industry workers, all workers, total compensation; use the initial BLS/ALFRED first vintage consistent with that print and ignore later revisions.
- Data point
- bls.eci.total_compensation_private_industry_qoq.2026_q2.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: mirror.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.